Adapted from my Broadway Bulletin column in the January issue of U.K.-based Musicals magazine.
Financial success on Broadway has always been an elusive goal, with genuine hits as rare as Patti LuPone whipping out her mobile phone inside a theater. But producers’ predicament has worsened in recent years, especially since the 18-month COVID shutdown. Broadway grosses in the 2023-24 season fell 2.5% from the year before. What’s worse, ticket sales were down 17% from the pre-pandemic 2018-19 season – even as the cost of everything from sets to costumes to salaries has climbed. Fools, or dreamers, still rush in. While 22 Broadway musicals opened between May 2023 and May 2024, just four are scheduled to continue performances past the first week of 2025. That’s a dismal track record, especially when you consider that many of these “winners” may need to stay afloat for years to turn a profit. So what are the takeaways for armchair producers?
1. Jukebox musicals are passé – unless you have Keys
Last season was littered with failed jukebox musicals, from Once Upon a One More Time to The Heart of Rock and Roll. But Alicia Keys’s biomusical Hell’s Kitchen is, to borrow from one of her biggest chart-toppers, on fire with theatergoers.
2. Classic novels are the new movies
Hollywood-blessed IP is no guarantee of success. Back to the Future, which has run for three-plus years in London, closed after just 18 months on Broadway, while The Notebook and Water for Elephants shuttered after about eight months. (How to Dance in Ohio and Days of Wine and Roses folded even more quickly.) Two genuine successes, The Outsiders and The Great Gatsby, may benefit more from their literary roots more than their film adaptations. Both novels are widely taught in American schools, which explains why student groups have filled the seats at many performances. (The Outsiders also has the benefit of that rootsy score, youthful choreography, and Best Musical Tony Award.)
3. Revivals need stars
Only two musicals from the 2023-24 season announced they had recouped their capital investment – and both were starry revivals. Merrily We Roll Along boasted Harry Potter alum Daniel Radcliffe and Broadway vets Jonathan Groff and Lindsay Mendez, while Gutenberg! reteamed original Book of Mormon stars Andrew Rannells and Josh Gad. But without A-listers on the marquee, revivals of Spamalot and The Who’s Tommy quickly disappeared. And ticket sales for the pricey London import Cabaret plummeted when Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne hung up his conical Emcee’s hat after just five months.
4. History lessons are history
Everybody’s looking for the next Hamilton — but that box office hit’s success didn’t repeat itself with shows like Here Lies Love, Lempicka, Harmony, or Suffs. At least Shaina Taub’s paean to early women’s rights activists snagged two Tony Awards and managed to march along for eight months.
5. Broadway can be just another stop on the road tour
Some savvy producers are treating New York as just another city on a long tour through North America. The strategy paid off for The Wiz, which arrived at the Marquis Theatre in March after playing 13 cities across the U.S. — and now plans to ease back on down the road in February. Despite mixed reviews and zero Tony nominations, the revival whizzed by with nearly $30 million in just 21 weeks.
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