A remarkable, and in some ways remarkably strange Broadway season is winding down. The number of musicals — new musicals in particular — has been remarkably light. I’ll bet that the producers of last season’s Real Women Have Curves and Dead Outlaw wish they had waited a few months to improve their shows’ chances in a 2025-26 season. (Operation Mincemeat and Buena Vista Social Club would have been better positioned to nab the Tony Award for Best Musical.) There have been a healthy number of nonmusical shows, revivals in particular — including a big batch of shows that have never played on Broadway but were bumped out of the new play category because they’ve been kicking around Off Broadway and regional theaters for a decade or more.
With this year’s Tony Awards are just around the corner — nominations due to be announced this Tuesday, May 5, ahead of the June 7 ceremony at Radio City Music Hall — let’s take a look at how this year’s race is stacking up in the top categories.
BEST MUSICAL
There are only six new musicals this season, all but one based on a film or TV series, so there will only be four nominees this year. The Queen of Versailles, which opened and closed quickly last fall, is the first to fall out. I suspect Beaches may be the other victim.
Likely nominees:
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Titaníque
Schmigadoon!
The Lost Boys
Potential spoiler: Beaches
Gone and mostly forgotten: The Queen of Versailles
BEST PLAY
With just eight eligible new plays, nominations should top out at four. Giant and Liberation are safe bets here, with The Balusters a strong contender. While Dog Day Afternoon is a high-profile possibility for that fourth slot, expect the nomination to go to the Laurie Metcalf vehicle Little Bear Ridge Road despite its closure last fall.
Likely nominees:
Giant
Liberation
The Balusters
Little Bear Ridge Road
Potential spoilers: Punch, The Fear of 13, Dog Day Afternoon
Gone and mostly forgotten: Call Me Izzy
BEST PLAY REVIVAL
This is a very full and very competitive category this year with 11 contenders — including a bunch of shows that have never played on Broadway but were placed into the revival category by the Tony eligibility gurus because they have been kicking around Off Broadway or regional theaters for a decade or more. (That includes Becky Shaw, Every Brilliant Thing, Bug, and Marjorie Prime.) Curiously, Robert Icke’s radically rewritten, updated Oedipus is considered a revival and Icke’s also considered the show’s credited author. That show seems like the front-runner in a category that should have five nominees, though Death of a Salesman may be gaining momentum still it’s still on the boards.
Likely nominees:
Oedipus
Death of a Salesman
Fallen Angels
Bug
Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Potential spoilers: Marjorie Prime, Every Brilliant Thing, Becky Shaw
Other contenders: Proof, Waiting for Godot, Art
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL
There are only five eligible shows this year – Beetlejuice’s brief stint at the Palace last fall was considered an extension of its previous Broadway run – and so it’s likely that there will only be three nominees in this category. (A fourth could be added if there’s a 10% delta between the nominating committee’s third and fourth place votes.) Ragtime and Cats: The Jellicle Ball are shoo-ins, and The Rocky Horror Show has opened to strong enough reviews at the end of the season to rob Chess of the third slot. Call it a drag queen’s gambit.
Likely nominees:
Ragtime
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
The Rocky Horror Show
Other contenders: Chess, Mamma Mia!
LEAD ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
There should be five nominees in this category — especially since Stephanie Hsu was declared a lead actress for her role as Janet (dammit!) in The Rocky Horror Show. Caissie Levy seems to be ahead in this competition, and Christiani Pitts and Marla Mindelle are safe bets. The last two slots look like toss-ups. Jessica Vosk has been getting raves in the Bette Midler role in Beaches (despite overall yawns for the musical), while Hsu is showing nice virgin-to-vamp range in Rocky Horror. Still, you can’t count out the residual support for Chess’s Lea Michele, who wasn’t Tony eligible for her memorable star turn as a replacement Fanny Brice in Funny Girl, and Kristin Chenoweth, a Tony darling who worked very hard in the short-lived The Queen of Versailles.
Likely nominees:
Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Marla Mindelle, Titaníque
Jessica Vosk, Beaches
Stephanie Hsu, The Rocky Horror Show
Potential spoilers: Lea Michele, Chess; Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!; Kristin Chenoweth, The Queen of Versailles
Other contenders: Kelli Barrett, Beaches; Christine Sherrill, Mamma Mia!
LEAD ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
The Tony gods have smiled this year by elevating both Luke Evans and Andrew Durand into the lead category for The Rocky Horror Show, as well as Alex Brightman for Schmigadoon! That should increase the number of nominees to five, though Joshua Henry seems to have this award locked up as the bellowing basso soul of Ragtime. Evans, Sam Tutty, and Nicholas Christopher are locks for nominations. That fifth slot is a bit open, but I’d give the edge to Ragtime‘s other male lead, Brandon Uranowitz.
Likely nominees:
Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers
Nicholas Christopher, Chess
Luke Evans, The Rocky Horror Show
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime
Potential spoilers: LJ Benet, The Lost Boys; Andrew Durand, The Rocky Horror Show
Other contenders: Alex Brightman, Schmigadoon!; Aaron Tveit, Chess
LEAD ACTRESS IN A PLAY
This is an interesting year — with a remarkably deep array of meaty lead roles for women. The actress playing Linda Loman in Death of a Salesman has been nominated in both the lead and featured categories in the past, but the Tony committee went with featured for Laurie Metcalf — which prevents her from competing against herself for her star turn in last fall’s Little Bear Ridge Road. But Anika Noni Rose was elevated to lead for the comedy The Balusters, which creates just enough contenders for there to be five nominees. (Many were surprised that the 96-year-old June Squibb was slotted into the featured category for playing the title character in Marjorie Prime.) Lesley Manville, Carrie Coon, and Susannah Flood all seem like sure things even though their shows have closed. Rose Byrne has been getting raves for her tipsy turn in the current Noël Coward revival Fallen Angels (beside Kelli O’Hara). I hope Metcalf gets that fifth slot but I wouldn’t count out Rose.
There are likely just four nominees in this category – especially since Tony nominators surprisingly bumped I hope nominators don’t forget about Laurie Metcalf’s memorable turn in last fall’s Little Bear Ridge Road, though Rose Byrne has garnered raves for her Fallen Angels.
Likely nominees:
Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Carrie Coon, Bug
Susannah Flood, Liberation
Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels
Laurie Metcalf, Little Bear Ridge Road
Potential spoilers: Anika Noni Rose, The Balusters; Jean Smart, Call Me Izzy
Other contenders: Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels; Ayo Edebiri, Proof
LEAD ACTOR IN A PLAY
Two-time Tony winner John Lithgow towers over the pack for his performance as the irascible Roald Dahl in Giant. But he’s up against a surprising number of well-known names in shows who have gotten very strong reviews — including Nathan Lane, Mark Strong, and Daniel Radcliffe. The fifth slot is a bit of a toss-up, but I have a hunch that Namir Smallwood from the now-closed Bug may edge out the better known Hollywood interlopers Adrien Brody and Jon Bernthal.
Likely nominees:
John Lithgow, Giant
Nathan Lane, Death of a Salesman
Mark Strong, Oedipus
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing
Namir Smallwood, Bug
Potential spoilers: Adrien Brody, The Fear of 13; Jon Bernthal, Dog Day Afternoon
Gone but mostly forgotten: James Corden, Art; Micah Stock, Little Bear Ridge Road; Keanu Reeves, Waiting for Godot; Alex Winter, Waiting for Godot; Will Harrison, Punch; Neil Patrick Harris, Art; Bobby Cannavale, Art
DIRECTOR OF A MUSICAL
Lear DeBessonet, who kicked off her tenure as artistic director of Lincoln Center Theater with her acclaimed revival of Ragtime, is the clear favorite to win. Two Strangers and Cats: The Jellicle Ball are safe bets for nominations, but the last few slots are pretty open in a comparatively weak year for musicals.
Likely nominees:
Lear DeBessonet, Ragtime
Tim Jackson, Two Strangers
Zhailon Livingtons and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Christopher Gatelli, Schmigadoon!
Sam Pinkleton, The Rocky Horror Show
Potential spoilers: Michael Arden, The Lost Boys; Tye Blue, Titanique
DIRECTOR OF A PLAY
It’s been a strong year for dramas — and the top four spots seem locked in. That fifth slot, though, is much harder to call. I’m going to give the edge to Anne Kauffman, who’s overseen the wonderful Marjorie Prime since its Off Broadway premiere a decade ago.
Likely nominees:
Nicholas Hytner, Giant
Robert Icke, Oedipus
Joe Mantello, Death of a Salesman
Whitney White, Liberation
Anne Kauffman, Marjorie Prime
Potential spoilers: David Cromer, Bug; Trip Cullman, Becky Shaw; Debbie Allen, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone; Scott Ellis, Fallen Angels
FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
The featured acting races are so, so much harder to predict — because there are just so many potential contenders. Nichelle Lewis is a lock for Ragtime, but beyond that there are a lot of unknowns. The nominating committee could fill the rest of the slots with members of the feline cast of Cats: The Jellicle Ball. “Tempress” Chasity Moore has the strongest shot as Grizabella. Will Shoshana Bean be recognized for The Lost Boys? What about Deborah Cox and/or Melissa Barrera for Titaníque? Or Rachel Dratch and/or Amber Gray for The Rocky Horror Show? I’m going to play it safe by spreading the love around — but I suspect that the nominators will double or triple up recognition for one show.
Likely nominees:
Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime
“Tempress” Chasity Moore, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Melissa Barrera, Titanique
Rachel Dratch, The Rocky Horror Show
Possible spoilers: Deborah Cox, Titaníque; Amber Gray, The Rocky Horror Show; Emma Sofia, Cats: The Jellicle Ball; Samatha Schwartz, Beaches
FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
The safest prediction is that Broadway’s Old Deuteronomy, 80-year-old legend André De Shields, will secure another nomination for Cats: The Jellicle Ball. Again, this category could be filled entirely — or nearly so — with the lithe performers from that reconceived version of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s classic. I suspect, though, that nominators will find room for Ragtime‘s Ben Levi Ross and Schmigadoon!’s faux Billy Bigelow, Max Clayton. And that Jim Parsons will get more Tony love for his cross-dressing turn in Titaníque — though his Olivier-winning co-star Layton Williams does a fierce enough Tina Turner impression to sashay away with a nod.
Likely nominees:
André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
Max Clayton, Schmigadoon!
Jim Parsons, Titaníque
Sydney James Harcourt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Possible spoilers: Layton Williams, Titanique; Junior LaBeija, Cats: the Jellicle Ball; Primo Thee Ballerino, Cats: The Jellicle Ball; Robert “Silk” Mason, Cats: the Jellicle Ball; Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys
FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
It’s a super-competitive category this year — with multiple contenders who could legitimately considered leads — including June Squibb and Laurie Metcalf. It’s also a year in which we may have two very senior nominees: Squibb, a star of Broadway’s original 1959 production of Gypsy, is 96, while The Balusters‘ Marylouise Burke is 85. And look out for Tony darling Kara Young to snag her fifth consecutive nomination for Proof — a production she stepped into at the last minute after another actress backed out.
Likely nominees:
June Squibb, Marjorie Prime
Laurie Metcalf, Death of a Salesman
Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Kara Young, Proof
Aya Cash, Giant
Possible spoilers: Marylouise Burke, The Balusters; Linda Emond, Becky Shaw; Nimene Sierra Wureh, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone; Jessica Hecht, Dog Day Afternoon; Cynthia Nixon, Marjorie Prime; Tracee Chimo, Fallen Angels
FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
I’m going out on a limb here, but I have a hunch Tony is going to gravitate more toward the supporting stars of Debbie Allen’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone — especially Ruben Santiago-Hudson’s riveting turn as the “conjure” man — than the sons in Death of a Salesman. The only other lock in this category is Alden Ehrenreich, who chews up the scenery (and his fellow characters) as an antagonistic finance guy in Becky Shaw.
Likely nominees:
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Joshua Boone, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Richard Thomas, The Balusters
Elliot Levey, Giant
Possible spoilers: Ben Ahlers, Death of a Salesman; Christopher Abbott, Death of a Salesman; Charlie Thurston, Liberation; Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime