In less than a week, Pink will get the party started at Radio City Music Hall for the 79th annual Tony Awards. It’s been an interesting year on Broadway, with a surprisingly deep field of new plays as well as some strong and starry revivals. It’s been a weaker year for musicals, with most arriving as adaptations of well-known movies or TV shows. Here, too, it’s the revivals that have dominated the conversation, particularly imaginative productions of Ragtime and Cats (rethought as a ballroom competition straight out of Paris Is Burning).
Surveying the nominees, I see a lot of fantastic work — and some categories, especially for actresses, that are uncharacteristically deep and competitive. In fact, there are quite a few close races this year. Will voters choose Nathan Lane as Willy Loman or John Lithgow as Roald Dahl? Can 96-year-old June Squibb, the title character in Marjorie Prime, pull off an upset over Laurie Metcalf as Linda Loman?
Perhaps because we’re on the eve of America’s 250th birthday, I sense a deeper connection to stories rooted in our country’s past. Bess Wohl’s Liberation, exploring the women’s movement of the 1970s, feels more relevant to New York audiences than the very British drama Giant. Death of a Salesman, meanwhile, echoes more urgently than a smartly updated version of the ancient Greek tragedy Oedipus. That sentiment could also generate a lot of love for a wonderful revival of Ragtime, a very American story set at the turn of the 20th century.
I also understand the psychology of awards voters. Sometimes they like to strategically split their ballot, rewarding a No. 2 pick with a prize in a smaller category, but often they pick a favorite show and reward it all the way down the ballot (or nearly so). I expect a lot of awards for Joe Mantello’s Death of a Salesman for just this reason.
Here are my predictions on who will (and, in my opinion, should) walk home with a statue with a spinning gold medallion.
BEST NEW MUSICAL
Nominees: The Lost Boys; Schmigadoon!; Titaníque; Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Will win: Schmigadoon!
Should win: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
I have a soft spot for the season’s only new musical that wasn’t based on pre-existing IP: Two Strangers boasts a hook-filled score, a clever story, and two stars with infectious energy and chemistry to sustain two acts all by themselves. But I suspect that Tony voters are going to go for one of the two splashier musicals that are likely to sustain extended tours. Schmigadoon! may have the slight edge, but there seems to be real respect and appreciation for the technical artistry on display in The Lost Boys.
BEST NEW PLAY
Nominees: The Balusters; Giant; Liberation; Little Bear Ridge Road
Will and should win: Liberation
Bess Wohl’s Liberation, which just won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama, has emerged as the deserving front runner in the race even though it closed months ago. While Giant picked up the Olivier Award, the stateside reception for this spiky evisceration of the British author Roald Dahl has been more muted.
BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Nominees: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman; Becky Shaw; Every Brilliant Thing; Fallen Angels; Oedipus
Will win: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: Oedipus
Robert Icke’s radically contemporary update on Sophocles’ Oedipus remains one of the highlights of my recent theatergoing experiences. It would get my vote over Joe Mantello’s excellent revival of that most American of mid-century American tragedies. But the consensus opinion has lined up that Mantello’s production is definitive.
BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Nominees: Cats: The Jellicle Ball; Ragtime; Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Will win: Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Ragtime
Andrew Lloyd Webber’s Cats is objectively not a great show, though reconceiving this scattershot furball of a muical as the showcase for trans and cross-dressing ballroom performers breathes fresh life into the material. What had once been cringey and twee is now passable and even occasionally fun — thanks to some skillful and athletic choreography. Tony voters, many of the them hoping to book hits for national tours, are likely to gobble it up like so much kibble. But Lear DeBessonet’s Ragtime is a deeper, more resonant theatrical experience altogether.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL
Nominees: Nicholas Christopher, Chess; Luke Evans, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show; Joshua Henry, Ragtime; Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York); Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime
Will and should win: Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Joshua Henry has had this prize in the bag from the open he belted “Wheels of a Dream” with basso authority.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL
Nominees: Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!; Stephanie Hsu, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show; Caissie Levy, Ragtime; Marla Mindelle, Titaníque; Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Will and should win: Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Marla Mindelle delivers a lot of laughs — and some surprisingly strong vocals — as Celine Dion in Titaníque. But Caissie Levy, who’s been a standout in previous musicals ranging from Frozen to Ghost to the 2021 revival of Caroline, or Change, seems poised to earn her first Tony as Mother.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY
Nominees: Will Harrison, Punch; Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman; John Lithgow, Giant; Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing; Mark Strong, Oedipus
Will win: Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: John Lithgow, Giant
This race is a toss-up between two acting legends: John Lithgow, 80, may be a sentimental favorite to win his third Tony (on his seventh nomination) for playing the towering bully Roald Dahl. But I suspect voters will go a more American route, rewarding Nathan Lane with his fourth Tony (also on his seventh nomination) for his harrowing turn as Everyman Willy Loman.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY
Nominees: Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels; Carrie Coon, Bug; Susannah Flood, Liberation; Lesley Manville, Oedipus; Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels
Will win: Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Should win: Susannah Flood, Liberation
Tony voters often love to reward movie and TV stars — and Lesley Manville turns in a riveting performance as a modern-day Jocasta in Robert Icke’s Oedipus. For me, though, Susannah Flood pulls off a trickier role as a ’70s woman grappling with the contours of the liberation movement in a college town in Ohio as well as that woman’s contemporary daughter who’s trying to piece together her mother’s past (while taking the audience into her confidence).
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY
Nominees: Christopher Abbott, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman; Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime
Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot; Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw; Ruben Santiago-Hudson, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone; Richard Thomas, The Balusters
Will and should win: Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
There will doubtless be support for Christopher Abbott as the dissolute Biff Loman in Death of a Salesman and for Ruben Santiago-Hudson’s compelling portrayal of the “conjure” man Bynum Walker in Joe Turner’s Come and Gone. Both would be deserving winners. But Alden Ehrenreich, in an astonishingly confident Broadway debut, struts off with Becky Shaw as a hilariously cutting alpha finance bro whose verbal aggression barely masks his deep insecurities.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A PLAY
Nominees: Betsy Aidem, Liberation; Marylouise Burke, The Balusters; Aya Cash, Giant; Laurie Metcalf, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman; June Squibb, Marjorie Prime
Will and should win: Laurie Metcalf, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
There’s a strong case to be made that neither nonagenarian June Squibb (as the title character in Marjorie Prime) or Laurie Metcalf (as Linda Loman in Death of a Salesman) should be relegated to the featured category. There may be a sentimental push for Squibb, but Metcalf finds new depths in a familiar role. Attention will be paid.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSICAL
Nominees: Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys; André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball; Bryce Pinkham, Chess; Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime; Layton Williams, Titaníque
Will win: André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
André De Shields, 80, twerks up a storm as Old Deuteronomy despite seeming somewhat unsteady on the elevated catwalk of The Jellicle Ball. He’s the clear sentimental favorite and likely to pick up his second career Tony. But Ben Levi Ross is the standout in the category, turning a newly radicalized child of privilege in Ragtime into a compelling and fully fleshed out character.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE IN A MUSIC
Nominees: Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys; Hannah Cruz, Chess; Rachel Dratch, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show; Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!; Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime
Will and should win: Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Star-minded voters may stump for Rachel Dratch or Ana Gasteyer in showily comic supporting roles. And there’s a case to be made for Nichelle Lewis and her powerhouse vocals as a single mom taken in by a wealthy white family in Ragtime, but Shoshana Bean has been a Broadway journeywoman who’s paid her dues in shows like Hairspray and Hell’s Kitchen. She stands out as the mother of a teenage vampire in The Lost Boys, and delivers the goods in the show’s strongest number, “Wild,” a ballad about trying to reclaim the rebelliousness of youth.
BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Nominees: Nicholas Hytner, Giant; Robert Icke, Oedipus; Kenny Leon, The Balusters; Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman; Whitney White, Liberation
Will win: Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: Whitney White, Liberation
If I had my druthers, I’d award this prize jointly to Robert Icke, who brilliantly reimagined an ancient Greek tragedy for the CNN era, and Whitney White, who brilliantly navigated the intersectional and intergenerational dynamics of a 1970s women’s group in Liberation. (If I had to choose only one, I’d go for White.) But I suspect that Joe Mantello will pick up his third Tony for a solid if stylized production of that chestnut Death of a Salesman.
BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Nominees: Michael Arden, The Lost Boys; Lear deBessonet, Ragtime; Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!; Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York); Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Will win: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Should win: Lear deBessonet, Ragtime
Who doesn’t like a comeback story? And Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch brought a fresh, of-the-moment perspective to Andrew Lloyd Webber’s Cats (a show that I found tighter and more compelling in its Off Broadway incarnation). But for my money, Lear deBessonet deserves the trophy for thoughtful and soulful production of a legitimate classic.
BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Nominees: The Lost Boys, David Hornsby and Chris Hoch; Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul; Titaníque, Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue; Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
Will win: Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul
Should win: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
Cinqo Paul has the edge here for effectively condensing the first season of his Apple TV mega-Broadway-parody Schmigadoon! — and packing in a bunch of additional jokes as well. Fans of Titaníque may also choose this category to reward the show (and two of its writer-stars). My favorite here is the truly original rom-com Two Strangers, which didn’t lean on previous material anyway to present an engaging story with only two characters.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (MUSIC AND/OR LYRICS WRITTEN FOR THE THEATRE
Nominees: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman, Music: Caroline Shaw; August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Music: Steve Bargonetti; The Lost Boys, Music & Lyrics: The Rescues; Schmigadoon!, Music & Lyrics: Cinco Paul; Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Music & Lyrics: Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
Will and should win: Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Music & Lyrics: Jim Barne and Kit Buchan
How weak were this year’s musicals? The nominating committee had to fill out the category with new scores for two plays (though both are musically interesting and contribute to their shows’ mood and tone). Schmigadoon! is chock full of songs from the TV show, with barely enough originals to qualify for a Tony — plus the tunes are mostly exercises in pastiche, admittedly very accomplished and catchy homages to classic Broadway show tunes. Two Strangers actually delivers an original pop score, with an infectious opening number that I have not managed to get out of my head since I first saw the show last November.
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
Nominees: Hildegard Bechtler, Oedipus; Takeshi Kata, Bug; Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman; David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon; David Rockwell, Fallen Angels
Will win: Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon
David Korins deserves props for re-creating both the interior and exterior of a bank in Dog Day Afternoon, but it’s unlikely that Tony voters want to reward a show so many dismissed as a disappointing adaptation of a half-century-old film. This is really a race between Chloe Lamford’s spare, empty garage design for Death of a Salesman and Hildegard Bechtler’s sleek office space for Oedipus with a prominent clock ticking down to the big plot reveal. I’m feeling a near-sweep for Death of a Salesman.
BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Nominees: dots, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show; Soutra Gilmour, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York); Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball; Dane LaƯrey, The Lost Boys; Scott Pask, Schmigadoon!
Will and should win: Dane LaƯrey, The Lost Boys
I’m a big fan of Soutra Gilmour’s ingeniously minimalist design for Two Strangers, whose skyline of piled suitcases opens up to reveal new locales, but Dane LaUrey’s set for The Lost Boys treats the stage area like a three-dimensional movie with set-pieces appearing and disappearing from all angles.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
Nominees: Brenda Abbandandolo, Dog Day Afternoon; Qween Jean, Liberation; Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels; Emilio Sosa, The Balusters; Paul Tazewell, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Will win: Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels
Should win: August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
When it comes to costumes, Tony voters tend to like to see a lot of work — that means really old period pieces or fantasy designs with lots of embellishments. Dog Day Afternoon and Liberation are both set in the ’70s, which may feel too recent. Jeff Mahshie’s designs for Noël Coward’s Fallen Angels have a rich plummy 1920s London feel, like something you’d see on Masterpiece Theatre. Personally, though, I’d go for the grittier designs (and more muted color palate) of Paule Tazewell’s looks for the 1911-set Joe Turner’s Come and Gone.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Nominees: Linda Cho, Ragtime; Linda Cho, Schmigadoon!; Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball; Ryan Park, The Lost Boys
David I. Reynoso, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Will and should win: Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Qween Jean serves one memorable look after another in The Jellicle Ball.
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
Nominees: Justin Ellington, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone; Tom Gibbons, Oedipus; Lee Kinney, The Fear of 13; Josh Schmidt, Bug; Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Will win: Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Should win: Josh Schmidt, Bug
Josh Schmidt’s sound design for Bug crawls under your skin in ways that are discomfiting and all too real, but the show closed months ago. Expect more love for Death of a Salesman, which also uses sound to good effect to underscore the disorientation of Nathan Lane’s Willy Loman.
BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Nominees: Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball; Kai Harada, Ragtime; Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys; Brian Ronan, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show; Walter Trarbach, Schmigadoon!
Will and should win: Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys
Expect a near-sweep in the technical categories for the visually stunning The Lost Boys.
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Nominees: Isabella Byrd, Dog Day Afternoon; Natasha Chivers, Oedipus; Stacey Derosier, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone; Heather Gilbert, Bug; Heather Gilbert, The Fear of 13; Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Will and should win: Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Jack Knowles’ helps define and focus the vast space of the Winter Garden Theatre with his lighting for Death of a Salesman, cleverly widening and narrowing the focus for individual scenes.
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Nominees: Kevin Adams, Chess; Jane Cox, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show; Donald Holder, Schmigadoon!; Adam Honoré, Cats: The Jellicle Ball; Adam Honoré and Donald Holder (Lighting Design) and 59 Studio (Projection Design), Ragtime; Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Will win: Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Should win:Adam Honoré and Donald Holder (Lighting Design) and 59 Studio (Projection Design), Ragtime
It’s rare that a show’s director also gets a credit as lighting designer but that’s the case for Michael Arden’s collaboration with lighting designer Jen Schriever on The Lost Boys, which smartly uses lighting both to advance its nighttime story and to hide the wire work and effects required for its flying vampires. It’s impressive and deserving work, but I preferred the subtler work on Ragtime — particularly the use of different tints for the three main storylines: cold, bright white for the suburban white family; a sepia-toned yellow for Harlem-based Black strivers; and a sooty blue-grey for Eastern European immigrants. It’s a bold design that enhances our understanding of the plot.
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Nominees: Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!; Ellenore Scott, Ragtime; Ani Taj, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show; Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball; Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys
Will and should win: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
The team from The Jellicle Ball should catwalk away with this category.
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Nominees: Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon!; Ethan Popp, Kyler England, Adrianne “AG” Gonzalez and Gabriel Mann, The Lost Boys; Lux Pyramid, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York); Brian Usifer, Chess; Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Will and should win: Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon!
The Schmigadoon! score is the most old-fashioned, with orchestrations for a traditional 14-member orchestra. It feels like a throwback, in a good way, compared to the rockier orchestrations for The Lost Boys or The Jellicle Ball.